With Nigeria’s oil output showing signs of recovery after years of disruption, the focus is shifting from reopening shut-in wells to sustaining production over the long term. In this interview with WALIAT MUSA, the President of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) Cecilia Olajumoke Ajayi explains why optimisation of mature fields, asset integrity and data-driven recovery techniques must now take precedence if the country is to meet its production targets, reduce costs and stabilise the upstream sector.
As the 48th President of NAPE. What does this milestone mean personally and professionally to you?
This milestone is deeply humbling. Being the first female CEO of an E&P company to serve as President of NAPE, having previously served as Vice President, makes it especially meaningful. My career has been driven by innovation, data-led exploration and indigenous capacity building, and this role provides a platform to scale those priorities. It is gratifying to have years of diligence and consistency recognised by industry peers, it reminds me that with focus, faith, and perseverance, it is possible to achieve great things and inspire others along the way.
As only the third female President in NAPE’s 51-year history, how do you view the significance of your election for the Association and for the wider oil and gas industry?
I try not to emphasise gender, because leadership should be about competence, service, and impact. Still, in a traditionally male-dominated industry, visible milestones matter. If my election helps shift perceptions or reassures even one young woman that these positions are open to her, then it is a meaningful outcome for both NAPE and the wider industry.
Nigeria’s oil production has experienced significant challenges in recent years. However, recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicate an improvement in output levels. From your industry and technical perspective, what immediate measures should be prioritised to sustain this recovery, enhance production efficiency and ensure that national budget benchmarks are consistently achieved?
The recent data from the NUPRC, showing an average production of about 1.64 million bopd in 2025 proves that the “tide is turning.” However, as geoscientists and industry leaders, we know that production recovery is a marathon, not a sprint. To sustain this momentum and hit our 2026 budget benchmark, which is anchored on roughly 1.84 – 2.06 million bopd, we must prioritise aggressive asset integrity, and this is because a significant portion of our current gains comes from reopening shut-in wells. We must move beyond just ‘reactivating’ to ‘optimizing’. This means applying advanced secondary and tertiary recovery techniques to mature fields, unlocking their full potential while reducing the unit cost of production to below the $20 per barrel target set by the regulator.
Equally important is securing the arteries of the industry. The stability we’ve seen is closely tied to improved pipeline security, e.g Trans Niger Pipeline. Institutionalising the ‘Community-Custodianship’ model, where host communities are active partners in protecting infrastructure, is critical for sustaining operations and ensuring long-term growth.
Where should Nigeria focus its exploration efforts for the next major discoveries, and which frontier or inland basins currently show the greatest potential?
The Niger Delta still holds significant potential, particularly in deeper plays and underexplored prospects where improved data, technology, and reinterpretation can unlock new discoveries. While fields like Bonga and Agbami have proven the value of deepwater exploration, the ultra-deepwater remains largely untapped. Recent successes, such as the Awodi-07 discovery by the NNPCL–Chevron JV, further confirm that the offshore still contains substantial “yet-to-find” volumes.
Beyond the Niger Delta, inland and frontier basins are increasingly important. The Dahomey Basin, particularly offshore Lagos and the Southwest, also shows strong promise, especially for gas. Discoveries such as OPL 310 (Ogo) represent world-class appraisal opportunities. In addition, the Anambra and Bida Basins form the next frontier, with the NUPRC’s Frontier Basin Exploration Plan prioritising seismic data acquisition. The Anambra Basin is highly gas-prospective and aligns well with Nigeria’s domestic gas utilization objectives.
Over the years, NAPE has been central to Nigeria’s petroleum exploration journey. How has the Association’s role evolved to address the challenges and opportunities of today’s industry landscape?
NAPE has continued to evolve by responding proactively to the changing realities of the industry. With a membership made up of highly experienced professionals across disciplines, the Association consistently draws on this depth of knowledge to find practical, best-fit solutions to emerging challenges. As new issues arise, NAPE adapts, and leverages collective experience to turn challenges into opportunities, while remaining focused on technical excellence and professionalism.
Exploration economics have become more complex. How can Nigeria better manage exploration risks to attract capital into the upstream sector?
Exploration capital is highly sensitive to risk and certainty. To attract the level of investment needed for the next phase of growth, Nigeria must shift from being perceived as high-risk to being seen as predictable and competitive. One important step is maintaining fiscal flexibility and speed. Recent Executive Orders have significantly reduced contracting timelines, helping unlock billions of dollars in new investments.
Another critical factor is de-risking exploration through data. Many exploration risks stem from limited subsurface understanding. Strategic use of the Frontier Exploration Fund to generate high-quality seismic data, alongside advanced tools such as 4D seismic and AI-driven reservoir modeling, can significantly reduce geological uncertainty and turn prospects into bankable opportunities.