Downstream Oil & Gas - Onewave TV

Dangote Refinery IPO attracts investors from 51 African countries

OWTV-Administrator — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 07:39:04 +0000

Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has said its ongoing initial public offering has attracted investors from 51 of Africa’s 54 countries, with subscriptions received from more than 90 countries worldwide.

The company said the level of participation reflected interest from investors across the continent in owning shares in the refinery, whose offer is scheduled to close on 27 October, 2026.In a statement on Sunday, the Chief Financial Officer of Dangote Group, Murat Erden, said, “This offering represents far more than a capital-raising exercise. It is a landmark opportunity for Africans and global investors alike to participate in the ownership of one of the continent’s most transformative industrial assets. The extraordinary participation from individuals and institutions across Africa demonstrates a shared conviction that Africans should not only benefit from industrial development but also own and create wealth from it”. The company maintained that the IPO broke the Nigerian capital market record on its opening day and surpassed the previous African record within its first 10 days. It attributed the performance to demand from retail investors, pension funds, institutional investors, asset managers and other members of the investing publicThe refinery recently reported revenue of $22.5bn and a net profit of $4.7bn for the nine months ended 30 September, 2026, compared with a loss of $117.2m in the corresponding period of 2025.

According to the company, revenue rose by 144 per cent from $9.2bn in the corresponding period of 2025, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased nearly ninefold to $5.5bn from $627.6m.

Operating cash flow also rose more than tenfold to $3.68bn, while the company moved from a net debt position of $1.73bn in September 2025 to a net cash position of $651m in September 2026.

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Oil Carriers Linked to Japan Return to MidEast

OWTV-Administrator — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 18:36:43 +0000

Oil tankers with links to Japan appear to be picking up Middle East cargoes directly in the region once again, a tentative but significant return for the first time since the war began in February that speaks to soaring freight and logistics costs.

Over more than seven months of conflict in the Persian Gulf, Japan’s risk-averse refiners and shipowners have stayed away from the wider area. Instead, they have relied on distant ship-to-ship transfers off the Indian coast or in Southeast Asia, increasing dependence on sellers and missing out on higher profits but shielding tankers, crews and cargoes. Any Japanese tankers around the Gulf have instead been leaving, in some cases after being trapped for months.

That appears to be changing. Ship-tracking data show the Idemitsu Maru — an Idemitsu Kosan Co.-owned supertanker which had left the Gulf in April — landed in Japan earlier this month with a full cargo of Omani crude, loaded at Mina Al Fahal.

At least two more very large crude carriers controlled by other Japanese companies are expected to reach Fujairah in the coming days to pick up Japan-bound cargoes, shipbrokers say.

None of the vessels has crossed into the Persian Gulf, however, and Idemitsu, in response to Bloomberg queries, said its position on dispatching vessels through Hormuz had not changed. “We will continue to work toward ensuring the stable procurement of crude oil and the safety of its transport,” a spokesperson said.

Japanese shipowners and refiners are also beginning to lean more heavily on ship-to-ship transfers in Middle Eastern waters. They began doing so in small amounts in August, and by early October had moved nearly 3.7 million barrels — approaching a tally of 4 million barrels for the whole of September.

The change appears “to reflect a selective return rather than a wholesale shift into higher-risk waters, as operators seek to balance safety with transport efficiency,” said Hidenori Watanave at the University of Tokyo Graduate School, who tracks Japanese vessels. Lower costs are likely to be one driver, as direct transits can avoid extra fees and delays, he said.

Leaning more heavily on supertankers operated or owned by Japanese entities will help increase control over transfers at a time when energy security is a top concern for Tokyo. Oil from the Middle East accounted for 93% of Japan’s crude imports of about 823 million barrels in 2025, Kpler data show. Japanese processors were built to run Middle Eastern medium-sour and light crude grades.

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Dangote refinery IPO attracts fourfold subscriptions, offer extended

OWTV-Administrator — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 17:52:49 +0000

Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s public offer has reportedly attracted subscriptions several times above its original fundraising target, with a fourfold subscription of the N2.15tn offer value translating to about N8.61tn.

President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, disclosed on Monday that subscriptions had exceeded the amount the company originally intended to raise by more than three or four times, as the refinery extended the closing date of its share offer by two weeks to attract more African investors.

The company has not, however, disclosed the exact amount subscribed or confirmed that the fourfold figure applies to the full value of the offer.

The IPO comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares priced at N525 each, giving the offer a total value of N2.1525tn if all the shares are subscribed.A calculation that multiplies the N2.1525tn offer value by four puts potential subscriptions at N8.61tn. This represents an estimate based on the offer value and Dangote’s remarks.

In a statement by the Dangote Group on Monday, Dangote was quoted as saying that the extension was not driven by a need to raise more money but by the company’s desire to give more Africans an opportunity to own shares in the business.

“The IPO is going very well. We will extend the closing date because we want more of our African brothers and sisters to participate. Following our discussions with the Nairobi Stock Exchange, we have identified what we believe is the best way to facilitate participation. We are now trying to replicate that arrangement with other African exchanges to ensure wider participation,” he said.Explaining the level of subscriptions received, Dangote said, “But when it comes to the amount of money we originally intended to raise, we have already received subscriptions amounting to more than three or four times that figure. So, it is not about the amount of money. It is about the number of people who will have the opportunity to participate in this offer. That means quite a lot to us.

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FG’s 30-day petrol discount sparks opposition backlash

OWTV-Administrator — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 06:49:41 +0000

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the Obidient Movement, the Nigeria Democratic Congress and the presidential campaign organisation of Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde have rejected the Federal Government’s proposed 30-day petrol discount, describing the intervention as inadequate and politically motivated.

The Federal Government, however, announced on Thursday that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited would forgo its retail profit margin on petrol and sell the product to Nigerians at a discounted cost as part of measures to cushion households from global crude oil price shocks.

The Presidency said the arrangement, backed by President Bola Tinubu, did not signal a return to the petrol subsidy regime, which ended on May 29, 2023.

The reactions followed Thursday’s announcement by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, that NNPC Limited would offer discounted petrol at its filling stations nationwide for 30 days, with priority given to public transport operators.

Oyedele said the intervention would enable NNPC to sell petrol at cost by temporarily forgoing its profit margins, rather than restoring the subsidy regime removed in May 2023.

Energy experts, however, expressed mixed reactions, with some welcoming the temporary relief while others warned that the intervention could amount to another form of subsidy if its costs were not transparently managed.We are offering a discount on petrol dispensed by NNPC Limited for the next 30 days, with priority for public transporters nationwide,” he said.

In a statement issued by the Director of Strategic Communication of the African Democratic Congress Presidential Campaign Council, Phrank Shaibu, Atiku described the intervention as a “panic-driven publicity stunt”.

“Atiku totally rejects this calendar-scheduled, election-laced subsidy package. Nigerians are not fools to be offered a month of discounted fuel after years of punishing prices and then expected to forget the hardship when the discount expires. This is shameless and heartless,” the statement read.

The former Vice-President questioned the sustainability of the initiative and what would happen after the 30-day period.

“What happens on Day 31? Nigerians wake up to the same brutal prices, the same punishing transport fares and the same rising cost of food. The government cannot manufacture relief for one month and expect Nigerians to applaud while the hardship remains,” he said.

Atiku also questioned the restriction of the discount to NNPC stations, as well as the absence of a confirmed amount per litre and guarantees that transport operators would pass the savings on to passengers.

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Oil Jumps on Renewed Conflict Fears

OWTV-Administrator — Fri, 02 Oct 2026 15:30:39 +0000

Oil rose back over the $100 mark as investors weighed a potential return to active conflict between the US and Iran, a prospect that could further tighten crude oil and refined product supplies.

Brent for December rose 4.4% to settle above $102 a barrel. Futures on Thursday climbed to intraday highs after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East.

That development comes after Wall Street analysts and traders said this week that crude flows from the Middle East are closing in on pre-war levels. Iran, however, appeared to have loaded no crude oil onto tankers in September, the latest indication of a US naval blockade’s effectiveness in severing the Islamic Republic’s access to energy markets.

Investors are wary that an increasingly cornered Iran could respond by intensifying the conflict.

“The increase in flows remains highly vulnerable to escalation,” said Hamad Hussain, a climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. “I’d also describe the market as being structurally tight given the relatively low level of inventories after six months or so of drawdowns. That puts a floor under prices.”

Prices for Brent also adjusted higher following the expiration of the commodity’s November contract on Wednesday, as traders rolled over their positions and prices recalibrated to the dangers in the Middle East.

“We remain bullish,” said Al Salazar, head of oil and gas research at industry consultant Enverus. The deployment could indicate “a ground operation or could be helping to support the increased traffic through the strait. If it’s the latter, as a trader I would wonder how sustainable it is.”

Physical market indicators continue to flash constraints. Oil traders last week paid record premiums to secure immediate supply at the biggest US storage hub. In Europe, Dated Brent – a critical physical-market indicator – has also been trading at a wide premium to futures.

Crude prices were higher for a third month in September, as Washington and Tehran failed to make headway toward a lasting peace agreement that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, supply buffers have weakened following eight months of upheaval in the Middle East as governments have drawn on strategic crude stockpiles.

Flows have remained in focus as traders seek to assess how many barrels continue to exit Hormuz. Working out what Persian Gulf producers are sending to the market has been complicated by covert transits to avoid ongoing attacks on vessels, as well as strikes on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates about 23 million barrels a day of oil left the Middle East in the last week, both out of Hormuz and through other export routes like the Red Sea. That’s in line with last year’s average.

All eyes on fuel

Traders are also contending with uncertainty across fuel markets. Chinese exporters have canceled some oil-product cargoes slated for export in October, as Asia’s top consumer prioritizes domestic supply.

The diesel market has been roiled by both the turmoil in the Persian Gulf and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. A potential ban on exports of the fuel is being considered in the US, which has become Europe’s top supplier.

The US has told Germany and France to release emergency diesel inventories to help ease global fuel prices or face a potential curb, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Months of on-again, off-again negotiations to end the war, launched by the US and Israel in February, have left oil futures prone to large swings, making it harder for traders to position for big moves.

What BloombergNEF analysts say:
“Gulf exports have recovered through escorted transits and alternative routes, but inventories have fallen by more than 500 million barrels since February, leaving a thinner buffer against further disruption.”

There have also been significant shortages in fuel markets that are bolstering crude demand as refineries try to churn out as many barrels as they can.

As Ukraine strikes Russian refineries, Moscow has further extended a ban on most diesel exports through October, adding to the tightening of the global market just as demand rises ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

At the start of the Iran war, similar restrictions contributed to lower Chinese crude imports, said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG. That’s helping to keep the market in check as the world’s largest crude buyer backed away from the market.

“It remains unclear whether the latest measures will have the opposite effect and support higher crude imports, particularly given the recent drawdown in both Chinese crude and refined product inventories,” said Staunovo.

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Oil Risk Premium Is Becoming Structural

OWTV-Administrator — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 18:58:03 +0000

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered Bank team late Monday, the company’s Energy Research Head, Emily Ashford, outlined that there will be no return to normal for the oil market, warning that the “oil risk premium is becoming structural”.

Ashford revealed in the report that Standard Chartered Bank has raised its oil price forecasts “given stalled diplomacy and regional escalation beyond Iran and Hormuz”, noting that it sees “a structurally higher price floor as the energy system shifts from efficiency towards resilience”.

The Energy Research Head highlighted in the report that Standard Chartered Bank’s call rests on three “key developments”. The first of these is that the conflict is “regional rather than bilateral”, the second is that “diplomacy is increasingly likely to produce an imperfect and gradual de-escalation, rather than a clean reset”, and the third is that the energy system “is moving from optimization around efficiency towards resilience, redundancy, and optionality,” Ashford pointed out.

The report revealed that Standard Chartered Bank has raised its average Brent crude forecast for 2026 to $92.00 per barrel, from $85.50 per barrel, and its 2027 Brent crude forecast to $89.50 per barrel, from $77.50 per barrel. Standard Chartered Bank’s average WTI forecast for 2026 is now $86.00 per barrel, from $80.25 per barrel, and its 2027 WTI forecast has risen to $82.75 per barrel, from $72.50 per barrel, the report showed.

“The energy market is confronting a more persistent deterioration in the Middle East security environment,” Ashford said in the report.

“We see little prospect of a return to the pre-conflict status quo. No credible pathway to a durable settlement is yet visible and the conflict has now broadened to a regional security problem with the Houthi/Saudi escalation adding a second front,” Ashford added.

“This means that risk is no longer concentrated just around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia has been drawn deeper into the conflict,” Ashford warned.

Higher Price Threshold

In the report, Ashford noted that Standard Chartered Bank’s new oil price forecasts reflect a higher price threshold and warned that there is potentially lasting physical damage to the energy system.

“The key change in our forecasts is not simply a higher oil price, it is a higher threshold for what constitutes ‘normal’,” Ashford said.

“The conflict may eventually end, but we do not expect the risk architecture that has been exposed to disappear with it,” Ashford added.

“The longer the conflict remains in this impasse, the more difficult and expensive it becomes to return to the old equilibrium,” Ashford continued.

“The current disruption is more than a temporary supply shock. It is accelerating a structural shift supporting both a longer period of elevated oil prices and a higher long-term price floor,” Ashford went on to state.

The Energy Research Head pointed out in the report that the company raised its oil price forecasts in the short term because the current risk premium is proving more persistent than Standard Chartered Bank had previously assumed.

“The longer the impasse continues, the greater the potential damage to energy infrastructure and oil reservoirs, and the greater the depletion of strategic and commercial inventories,” Ashford warned.

“The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is approaching levels at which operational flexibility becomes increasingly constrained, and its ability to provide another buffer against prolonged disruption is diminishing,” Ashford added.

According to a data page on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) website, which displayed weekly U.S. ending stocks of crude oil in the SPR from August 1982 to September 2026, and was last updated on September 23, weekly ending stocks of crude oil in the SPR came in at 284.552 million barrels in the week ending September 18. The last time SPR stocks were lower than the September 18 figure was in the week ending October 29, 1982, when they came in at 284,268 million barrels, the data page showed.

Looking at 2027 in the Standard Chartered Bank report, Ashford outlined that the company’s higher forecasts reflect a slower normalization of flows and inventories than it had envisaged.

“We now expect the long-term Middle Eastern geopolitical picture to be characterized by extended periods of stability, punctuated by episodic escalations that are likely to maintain a level of risk in the market for Gulf-associated barrels,” Ashford said.

“Longer-term, the marginal cost of resilience is now higher, and the market is likely to carry more redundancy,” Ashford added.

No Clean Exit

Ashford projected in the report that, at present, the U.S.-Iran conflict has no clean exit.

“November is the next obvious inflection point for U.S.-Iran diplomacy,” Ashford said.

“President Trump has stated that he expects a deal after the midterm elections (3 November), although the economic cost of elevated fuel prices creates a clear incentive for Washington to attempt to contain the conflict ahead of the vote,” Ashford added.

“Even if negotiations begin in earnest after November’s vote, the core disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, Hormuz transit, and regional security remain unresolved,” Ashford warned.

“We therefore see a greater risk of an extended period of ceasefires and partial agreements, punctuated by intermittent escalation,” Ashford highlighted.

The Energy Research Head went on to note that the U.S. midterm elections in November may be an inflection point for U.S.-Iran diplomacy, but not necessarily an end point.

“There is genuine political incentive for Washington to contain the conflict, particularly given the impact of energy prices on U.S. consumers and notable exposure to high diesel prices across key agriculture-focused swing states such as Iowa,” Ashford pointed out.

“Iran has demonstrated its ability to disrupt Hormuz, the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to threaten Saudi energy infrastructure and Bab el-Mandeb. Gulf producers have seen the vulnerability of alternative export routes, with bypasses becoming further chokepoints,” Ashford added.

“Fragile diplomacy has been complicated by the Yemen escalation. Even if a ceasefire removes some risk premium, it will not necessarily remove the risk,” Ashford continued.

Ashford went on to state that, for years, the energy system has been optimized for efficiency – “low inventories, lean supply chains, limited spare capacity, minimal redundancy, and just-in-time logistics”. The events of 2026, however, have “exposed the costs of that model”, Ashford said.

“In our view, the long-term consequence will be greater willingness to pay for security, diversity, and optionality, with higher inventories, more spare capacity, diversified logistics, more redundancy and a higher price floor for energy,” Ashford noted.

“Longer-term, we forecast a slower normalization process than previously expected because a diplomatic breakthrough does not immediately restore disrupted flows, shipping patterns, inventories or confidence,” Ashford continued.

“With producers, consumers and governments likely to place a greater value on resilience and optionality, we expect a higher price floor,” Ashford stated.

Oil Price Trends

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) team on Tuesday, SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop highlighted that spot crude oil prices are at “very high levels”.

“The Brent 1M (November) contract yesterday traded between $103.76 – 108.83 per barrel before settling the day at $105.28 per barrel,” Schieldrop noted.

“This morning it is trading up 1.4 percent to $106.8 per barrel. That is not much of a price given that the ME crisis has been ongoing since 28 February,” he added.

“The Dated Brent spot price, however, settled yesterday at $123.78 per barrel and averaged $120.6 per barrel last week,” he pointed out.

“Even stronger were the individual North Sea spot crude prices where Johan Sverdrup crude averaged $144 per barrel from 21 to 24 September,” Schieldrop noted.

“Johan Castberg was said to have traded at a premium of $32 per barrel to the Dated Brent price last week which potentially would have placed it closer to $150 per barrel,” he continued.

In the report, Schieldrop outlined that crude oil prices have been on a “steady trend upwards” since they “bottomed out at around $70 per barrel in early July” following the “discharge of some 200 million barrels of crude, products, and liquids from the Persian Gulf during a two week MoU window”.

Schieldrop went on to note in the report that the oil market today is split apart in time, space, and molecules.

“Financial crude oil prices for November delivery are trading at $106 per barrel (Brent) and $93.3 per barrel (U.S. WTI) and $107/b (Oman),” he highlighted.

“But spot crude oil prices are much higher at $120-150 per barrel as described above. But consumers do not consume crude oil, they consume diesel and gasoline and other products,” he added, noting that diesel prices “are closer to $200 per barrel in ARA due to destruction of Russian refineries and locked-in refineries in the Persian Gulf”.

“Oil markets are very stressed with respect to products but not so stressed with respect to crude oil. But refineries are eager to pay up for crude deliveries right here and now so they can convert that crude to products and make a killing profit,” he noted.

“They are not willing to pay up for November crude deliveries in the same way as uncertainties on the Middle East situation is so high,” he added.

“Exorbitantly expensive VLCC freight rates is also driving prices apart,” Shieldrop pointed out.

“VLCC freight rates are today running at 500,000 to 1,000,000 dollar a day rather than the normal 20,000 a day,” he revealed.

“This typically adds $10-20 per barrel for crude oil between the point of origin and the point of delivery some 30-50 days out in time when the crude is delivered,” he said.

“This creates a lot of confusion of what really is the price of crude oil these days. Prices are very different in time and space,” he added.

Market Levers

In a market quick take posted on its website on Tuesday, Saxo Bank noted that oil prices rose for a second day, “with Brent trading above $107 on the soon to expire November contract, while December remains just below $100”.

“President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is sustaining concerns about prolonged supply disruption, particularly for fuel products,” the quick take highlighted.

“At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s resumption of exports through the East-West pipeline and rising crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz should eventually help ease some of the extreme physical tightness and elevated backwardation,” it added.

“However, buyers continue to face prohibitively high freight and insurance costs, keeping the refining costs elevated,” the Saxo Bank market quick take continued.

In a press gaggle at the White House on September 26, a video of which was posted on the White House YouTube channel, Trump said, “I’m rejecting their [Iran’s] deal”.

“They want to make a deal where they open the Strait immediately because they’re losing so badly … we’re winning tremendously. We have total control of the Hormuz Strait. Massive amounts of oil are coming out of the Hormuz Strait,” he added.

“They want to make a deal and I think that’s fine, I like making a deal too but … that deal would not be acceptable,” he continued.

In a televised Meet the Press interview with NBC News on Sunday, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, outlined, when asked for his response on Trump’s rejection of Iran’s seven-day ceasefire proposal, that the seven-day plan “can bring … life back to normal in the Persian Gulf and in the Strait of Hormuz”.

“Why are they rejecting this? This is a very important question that they have to answer,” he added.

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Oil Slides on Saudi Supply Relief

OWTV-Administrator — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 18:55:15 +0000

Oil fell as top exporter Saudi Arabia boosted flows through a key pipeline, overshadowing concerns over a US-Iran stalemate.

Brent futures slid to settle below $103 a barrel. The kingdom was said to have restored about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline following drone attacks. The conduit has been a crucial route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, providing a lifeline to global markets as the world’s most important energy chokepoint was disrupted by the Middle East conflict.

A steady flow of crude also appears to be eking out of the Persian Gulf through Hormuz on vessels transiting covertly, despite ongoing risks to shipping. The flows are helping ease concerns that a deal to reopen the waterway remains elusive. In the US, the Trump administration is releasing up to 40 million barrels from the nation’s emergency reserve, further pressuring prices on Tuesday.

“Increased flows through Hormuz and the restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline are giving the market some supply relief,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “The question is what that means for Iran: diminished leverage over Hormuz could bring it closer to the negotiating table, or prompt it to escalate to regain that leverage.”

While the nearest Brent contract remains in the triple digits, it’s just a day away from expiry on Wednesday, and the more active December futures settled near $96. The retreat follows a month when markets for real-world barrels were rocked into upheaval, with key gauges signaling a clamor for immediate delivery as freight costs soared, while fuel prices surged as global refinery capacity remains hobbled.

Crude is headed for a third monthly gain following the US war on Iran, disruptions to the Saudi bypass route and potential diesel export curbs by Washington, with the global benchmark up about 70% this year.

While the market for physical barrels has been tight, the energy crisis would have to become “much bigger” and more protracted for the International Energy Agency to put a fresh release of oil stockpiles at the top of its agenda, Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

Producers in the Persian Gulf have been seeking ways to keep markets supplied despite the disruption caused by the war on Iran. Oman plans to more than double oil storage capacity at a port outside Hormuz to help customers reduce their exposure to the contested waterway.

As the conflict drags into its eighth month, the US and Iran made little progress during talks in New York last week. Qatar is now holding meetings with the two warring sides and exchanging ideas on possible solutions, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Tuesday, with current efforts focused on building common ground.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is said to support a plan to ease sanctions on Russia in exchange for political prisoners, The Atlantic reported, citing US envoy John Coale. Russia is a top oil producer and sanctions have made it more difficult to export its crude.

Diesel prices have also been pushed higher by both Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war, while uncertainty has continued to mount over US measures to curb record prices for the fuel. Over the weekend, Trump said the White House was looking at curbs on diesel exports “very seriously.” European Union officials are increasingly optimistic that the US will hold off on such a move.

TotalEnergies SE Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said a US ban on diesel exports being considered by Trump to curb high prices could backfire. “It’s a bad idea” as it forces the nation’s refineries to cut throughput, potentially driving up domestic gasoline prices, he said.

Oil Prices

WTI for November delivery lost 3.5% to settle at $89.38 a barrel.
Brent for November settlement was 2.6% lower to settle at $102.59 a barrel in New York.
- The more-active December fell 1.7% to settle at $96.16 a barrel.

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Brent Oil Up Over 3 Percent in Intraday Trading

OWTV-Administrator — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 18:25:53 +0000

Brent oil was up more than three percent in intraday trading on Monday.

In a market quick take posted on its website today, Saxo Bank outlined that Brent was rising in early European trading after U.S. President Donald Trump “rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran maintained its seven-day conditions”.

“The path back to talks remains highly uncertain, with Trump saying Iran had overplayed its hand,” Saxo Bank noted in its quick take.

“This likely reflects the recent increase in oil flows through the Strait, none of which has come from Iran, further tightening the economic screws on Tehran,” it added.

The market quick take pointed out that spot-market tightness “remains extreme, with the soon to expire November Brent contract trading $8.2 per barrel, or 7.6 percent, above December, which is currently below $100”.

In a press gaggle at the White House on September 26, a video of which was posted on the White House YouTube channel, Trump said, “I’m rejecting their [Iran’s] deal”.

“They want to make a deal and I think that’s fine, I like making a deal too but … that deal would not be acceptable,” he continued.

“Why are they rejecting this? This is a very important question that they have to answer,” he added.

“Our proposal is very clear. We are ready to open the Strait if certain things are done by the U.S. and these certain things are not new, have not come from … space. These are our rights that we want to be respected,” he continued.

In crude market commentary sent to Rigzone today, Aaron Kildow, Crude Commodity Owner at Sparta Commodities, flagged “another wild week in the oil markets where true volatility is borne by the whims of our political leaders and the tides of war”.

“If the market wasn’t tough enough to trade between ebbs and flows of vessel counts and the shifting sands of peace talks, traders around the world now need to worry about the loss of one to two million barrels per day of diesel exports, just as the northern hemisphere goes into winter,” he added.

Kildow warned in his commentary that the fallout of a diesel export ban does not stay in its lane – “it spills out across the spectrum of oil markets”.

In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on Friday by the Fitch Group, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, highlighted that oil prices have come under renewed upward pressure this month, “due to rising Asian import demand, declining strategic petroleum releases, lingering Russian export disruptions, and the attack on, and subsequent suspension of, the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia”.

“Dated Brent and Brent futures peaked at $131.8 per barrel and $108.8 per barrel, respectively, at the September 15 close, having risen 20.2 percent and 46.9 percent over the first half of the month,” the BMI analysts pointed out.

“Price pressures in the market for refined fuels, notably diesel, also remain acute, with the benchmark U.S., European, and Singapore contracts also reaching peaks on September 15, having gained 17.1 percent, 16.4 percent, and 19.6 percent, respectively over the same period,” they added.

“Oil markets have subsequently sold off, but prices for both crude and fuels remain extremely elevated in historical terms,” they continued.

Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, which is part of TP ICAP, warned in market commentary sent to Rigzone on Friday that “predicting price movements is a brave undertaking”.

“Betting on de-escalation, either in the Middle East or Ukraine, ditto. Tension undeniably keeps brewing, and not exactly under the surface,” Varga added.

“No doubt, this madness will come to an end; that much one can be confident of. Even the timing of it is becoming clearer – possibly after November. Worryingly, though, the outcome and what will happen in the interim are not,” Varga noted.

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Oil Falls on Signs of Iran Progress

OWTV-Administrator — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 18:06:17 +0000

Oil fell on tentative signs that talks between the US and Iran to reopen the world’s most important energy shipping route were progressing.

West Texas Intermediate futures fell about 2.3% to settle near $92 a barrel, notching its first weekly drop since late August, as traders increasingly expect that the negotiations will be productive. The two countries were said to be pushing for a breakthrough that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lift its blockade of Iranian ports.

Still, the warring sides have appeared close to a deal many times before, only for talks to collapse. Signs of tightness remain across markets for real-world barrels, and many traders were hesitant to shift their positions until they see a meaningful increase in supplies.

A White House official said that President Donald Trump remained open to talking with Iran but stressed the US didn’t need to negotiate because it was in a strong position as a result of its sanctions campaign and the blockade.

“A similar deal has been announced so many times before, and we have seen little traction on it,” said Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered Bank. “Plus, even if we saw some diplomatic breakthrough, that doesn’t immediately restore disrupted flows, doesn’t normalize shipping, or boost dwindling inventories, or improve confidence.”

All week, crude prices have been buffeted by mixed signals on the outlook for peace, indications of a pick-up in Middle East flows and speculation that the US may ban diesel exports. For the year, Brent remains more than 70% higher, adding to inflationary pressures.

While front-month futures retreated on Friday, some widely tracked metrics pointed to elevated concerns about near-term supplies. Among them, Brent’s prompt spread – the difference between its two nearest contracts – has widened to nearly $7 a barrel, from less than $1 at the end of last month. The bullish pattern, known as backwardation, is the hallmark of a tight market.

Other signs include the record premiums traders paid on Thursday to secure prompt barrels at the main US crude-storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. In Europe, Dated Brent – a critical physical-market indicator – has been trading at a wide premium to futures. Some European refiners were told earlier this month they would be allocated no crude in October under long-term agreements with Saudi Arabia, after the kingdom’s East-West pipeline was shut because of attacks.

“The physical markets suggest we have run out of oil, though I wonder if that signal is misleading,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc. There’s a chance the rally will fade once refiners receive their allotted barrels in coming days, he added.

Persian Gulf suppliers have managed to slip crude through Hormuz, but risks to shipping remain. A cargo vessel was reportedly on fire and adrift after being struck by an unknown projectile earlier this week. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles fired toward the Red Sea port of Yanbu and the city of Taif on Thursday, as Iran-backed Houthi militants launched more strikes.

Oil Prices

WTI for November delivery fell 2.3% to settle at $92.41 a barrel in New York.
Brent for November settlement fell 2.1% to settle at $104.32 a barrel.

In fuel markets, speculation continues to swirl over whether the White House will pursue an outright ban on diesel exports. Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Trump’s economic advisers are analyzing the ramifications of a potential short-term ban on the workhorse fuel.

Market participants remain skeptical of such a move. While a potential ban would slash domestic prices for the fuel at the outset, traders and analysts say any relief is likely to be short-lived.

The post Oil Falls on Signs of Iran Progress first appeared on Onewave TV.

Crude Gains on Tight Supply Signals

OWTV-Administrator — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 16:21:29 +0000

Oil rose as signs of tightness across several key market gauges outweighed indications of diplomatic progress toward reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures settled near $107 a barrel, after climbing as much as 5% during the session. Prices initially rallied on hawkish rhetoric from Iran before easing, with US and Iranian negotiators exploring a phased deal that would see Tehran reopen the energy chokepoint and Washington lift its economic blockade of the Islamic Republic’s ports.

While the headlines stoked optimism surrounding diplomatic solution to the conflict that’s upended global energy markets, doubts remain. The warring sides have appeared close to a breakthrough before, only for US-Iran talks to collapse. Many traders are therefore reluctant to shift positions until they see a meaningful increase in barrels reaching the market.

“We’ve seen this movie so many times before,” said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, referring to previous signs of a breakthrough that ultimately didn’t come to pass. “We will believe it when we see it. We need to see something tangible.”

At the same time, gauges of real-world supply were flashing extreme tightness. Oil traders on Thursday paid record premiums to secure immediate supply at the biggest US storage hub. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate discount to Brent has widened to the biggest since May, as overseas buyers reckon with a scarce supply outlook.

Crude had rallied earlier on comments from a top Iranian military official that Tehran may broaden the war to the Indian Ocean if attacks by the US or Israel resume. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, came under attack from Houthis again.

Crude has climbed more than 70% this year as the US-Iran war, as well as the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have cut supplies and damaged infrastructure. Iran’s economy has contracted deeply since the US and Israel launched the war in February, hit by sanctions, the US naval blockade and soaring inflation. In the US, energy price spikes have also triggered inflation fears and are contributing to a global bond selloff, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting the highest since 2004 on Thursday.

Still, Persian Gulf producers have continued to eke crude barrels out of Hormuz on tankers with their transponders turned off, helping to cushion the fallout.

Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate was up 2.7% to settle at $94.61 a barrel in New York
Brent for November settlement rose 3.4% to settle at $106.60 a barrel

Traders are also closely monitoring Saudi Arabia’s exports. The kingdom came under attack from Tehran-backed Houthis again and said it intercepted missiles fired toward the Red Sea port of Yanbu, a key export center. France’s President Emmanuel Macron said he would send troops to defend Yanbu, as energy prices surge in Europe.

Still, some flows continue to exit. Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments in September jumped to the highest level since the start of the Iran war, as the nation ramps up exports via Hormuz following an attack on its East-West pipeline. Saudi Aramco’s Chief Executive Officer struck a positive tone regarding how soon the conduit can bounce back.

Fuel Outlook

Meanwhile, fuel markets have been hit harder, heaping pressure onto consumers and boosting price pressure worries for central bankers.

US retail prices for diesel, essential for transport, construction and agriculture, have surged to record levels. That’s prompted some lawmakers to push for export curbs as midterm elections loom. Earlier this week, Trump said he’d encouraged his advisers to support such a ban.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright was said to have told oil industry leaders to brace for possible curbs on diesel exports. But no final decision has been made, Bloomberg reported, with key Trump aides divided over the idea and oil executives warning against it.

US diesel futures have eased in recent days, while prices in Europe surged on the prospect of a cut in key American supplies

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