The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its U.S. regular gasoline price projection for both 2026 and 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).
According to its latest STEO, which was released on July 7 and completed its forecast on July 1, the EIA now sees the U.S. regular gasoline price averaging $3.64 per gallon this year and $3.09 per gallon next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in June, the EIA saw the U.S. regular gasoline price averaging $3.90 per gallon this year and $3.64 per gallon next year
A quarterly breakdown included in its latest STEO revealed that the EIA sees the fuel price averaging $3.80 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.39 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.13 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $3.21 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.12 per gallon in the third quarter of 2027, and $2.92 per gallon in the fourth quarter.
In its June STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline price would average $4.26 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.82 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.65 per gallon in the first quarter of 2027, $3.82 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.69 per gallon in the third quarter of next year, and $3.41 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2027.
“We expect lower crude oil prices will contribute to retail gasoline prices falling by about 41 cents per gallon in the third quarter (3Q26) compared with 2Q26 and averaging just under $3.80 per gallon,” the EIA said in its latest STEO, which projected that Brent and WTI spot average prices will come in at $81.91 and $76.26 per barrel this year, respectively.
In its previous STEO, the EIA saw Brent and WTI spot prices averaging $95.39 and $88.32 per barrel in 2026, respectively.
“A decrease in crude oil prices contributes to a decrease of almost 50 cents per gallon in quarter on quarter gasoline prices,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“However, this decrease is offset by increases in the wholesale and retail gasoline margins,” the EIA warned.
“Ongoing tightness in gasoline inventories will support the crack spread for gasoline – the difference between the wholesale price and the crude oil price – as we expect the wholesale price of gasoline will not fall as quickly as the price of crude oil,” it added.
The EIA revealed in its July STEO that it estimates the gasoline crack spread will increase about 10 cents per gallon on average in the third quarter of this year.
“We expect a similar increase in U.S. average regional retail and distribution margins – calculated as the difference between the retail and wholesale prices,” the EIA said in its latest STEO