US crude oil exports rose sharply over the first half to replace halted supplies from the Arabian Gulf but the US is unlikely to be able to repeat the exercise a second time.
Crude oil exports from the Gulf ground to a halt during the US-Israel conflict with Iran but were replaced in large part by sharply higher exports from the US. In what shipbroker Gibson has described as a ‘spectacular increase’, US crude exports climbed by 1.4m b/d during the second quarter to 5.2m b/d, an increase of 37%. The growth focused mostly on long-haul trade to Asia which doubled over 2025 volumes
A similar pattern was seen in clean exports but at more modest levels. Volumes rose by about 450,000b/d to 3m b/d, up by close to 20% compared with 2025 figures.
However, the impact on US stocks has been dramatic. Gibson revealed that crude oil stocks are at their lowest level for this time of year since 2018; the US emergency stockpile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), established in 1975, has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. Meanwhile, preliminary AIS data indicates that crude oil exports from the US Gulf have fallen steadily since May, Gibson noted, and were down last week to their lowest level in three months.
US crude oil production is rising – the Energy Information Administration has indicated an increase of 200,000b/d this year and forecast a further increase of 250,000b/d in 2027. But these increases will not make up for the decline in SPR stocks.
A similar picture is evident in the clean sector. Gibson notes that US refineries are running at peak utilisation levels. The 96% recorded in June was one the highest rates recorded over the last two decades. Exports rose to a record high during the week before last, according to EIA data.But higher exports have resulted in lower clean stocks which fell to their lowest level in mid-June for more than 20 years. They have recovered slightly since then, however.
The breakdown in the ceasefire and its impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is of mounting concern. The sharp fall in transits came after Iran attacked three commercial vessels off the coast of Oman last week and was followed by tit-for-tat strikes by the US on Iranian infrastructure, Iranian strikes US military bases across the Gulf.
At the time of writing, the outcome of negotiations in Switzerland between a US delegation headed by vice-president, JD Vance, and a delegation from Iran led by Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is not known.