EBW Analytics Group Energy Analyst Eli Rubin warned, in an EBW report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, that “bearish” medium-term NYMEX gas risks are “growing into the Spring”.“The long holiday weekend offered a net weather demand loss, even as a brief cold shot emerges early next week,” Rubin said in the report.“Technicals point lower, and signs are growing that next week may feature the last triple-digit EIA [Energy Information Administration] storage draw of the winter before warming in early March,” he added.
Rubin noted in the report that natural gas production is rising steeply, “reaching year to date highs Monday and setting the stage for a weakening spring outlook”.
Prompt supply strength is most prominent in the Marcellus and Permian, but supply tailwinds are also gathering for late 2026 alongside a major Haynesville rig count increase,” he said.
The EBW Energy Analyst said bearish caution surrounding another cold shot into early next week may postpone a sell-off. He warned, however, that “the year over year storage comparison may flip from a 97 billion cubic foot deficit to a 165 billion cubic foot surplus into early March, chances for a late-winter run higher are fading, and risks for another mild spring threaten sub-$3.00 per million British thermal unit (MMBtu) gas prices in the early injection season”.
Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, told Rigzone in an exclusive interview on Monday that the U.S. natural gas price was down “because of Spring fever”.
The snowpacks across the country have melted, especially in the Midwest where above normal temperatures are putting … downward pressure on natural gas,” he added.
“Even with a return of winter later next week, is it going to be cold enough to make a significant adjustment in natural gas supplies?” he continued.
“We’re getting closer and closer to real Spring – not this little taste of spring that we’re getting this week,” he went on to state.