In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on December 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its Brent price forecast for 2025 and 2026 but still projected that the commodity will drop next year compared to 2025.
According to its December STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $68.91 per barrel this year and $55.08 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in November, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $68.76 per barrel in 2025 and $54.92 per barrel in 2026. The EIA’s October STEO forecast that the commodity would average $68.64 per barrel this year and $52.16 per barrel next year, and its September STEO saw the commodity coming in at $67.80 per barrel in 2025 and $51.43 per barrel in 2026.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the Brent spot price will average $63.10 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $54.93 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $54.02 per barrel in the second quarter, $55.32 per barrel in the third quarter, and $56.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. The commodity averaged $75.83 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $68.01 per barrel in the second quarter, and $69.00 per barrel in the third quarter, the EIA’s December STEO showed. It also pointed out that the Brent spot price averaged $80.56 per barrel overall last year.
In its December STEO, the EIA highlighted that the Brent crude oil spot price averaged $64 per barrel in November, which it pointed out was $11 per barrel lower than in November 2024.
“Crude oil prices continue to fall as growing crude oil production outweighs the effect of increased drone attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure, and the latest sanctions on Russia’s oil sector,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“We forecast that growing global oil production and lower demand over the winter will accelerate the accumulation of oil inventories, resulting in further crude oil price declines in the coming months,” the EIA warned.
“We forecast that the Brent price will drop to an average of $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and will stay near that price for the rest of the year,” it added.