In a market update sent to Rigzone on Wednesday by Rystad Energy, Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad, noted that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had “essentially stopped”.
Leon, who outlined that the development “tells you more about risk perception right now than any statement from Washington or Tehran”, said Brent’s “climb to its highest level since 19 June shows how quickly the market is pricing in a ceasefire the U.S. president himself says is over”.
The Rystad Energy Head went on to state that “the real test comes after 9 July, once the mourning period [for late leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] rends and both sides show whether there is still an appetite for a diplomatic off-ramp”.
In the report, Rystad noted that the “Strait of Hormuz ceasefire looks to be over, with reported attacks on commercial vessels triggering a new round of U.S. retaliatory strikes overnight, and President Trump himself declaring the truce ended”.
During his time in Ankara, Türkiye, for the 2026 NATO Summit, U.S. President Donald Trump said he thought the ceasefire with Iran was over.
“To me, I think it’s over,” Trump said at the gathering yesterday, a video posted on Rapid Response 47’s X page, which was reposted by the White House X page, showed.
“I don’t want to deal with them anymore … I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate – they’re good people … but they have to come back to me. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them,” he added.
Rystad said in its update that it’s unclear whether diplomatic channels remain open in practice, adding that the latest military exchanges raise the risk that talks will either stall or continue under much more fragile conditions.
“Fundamentally, the events of the last few days significantly weaken any confidence that the current 60-day truce can still evolve into a permanent peace agreement,” Rystad said in the update.
The update highlighted that oil markets “reacted quickly to the renewed geopolitical risk”, pointing out that Brent rose to near $79 per barrel.
“The move highlights how sensitive prices remain to any escalation around the Strait, given its role as a critical transit route for global oil flows,” Rystad said in the update.