Recent security and oil sector data have highlighted a link between efforts to protect oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta and improvements in crude oil production, even as insecurity continues across several parts of Nigeria.
Findings from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project show that while conflict incidents and fatalities increased significantly across much of the country between 2023 and 2025, the South-South region recorded a decline in violent events and fatalities. ACLED is an independent, impartial conflict monitor providing real-time data and analysis on violent conflict and protest in various countries and territories across the world.
During the same period (between 2023 and 2025), Nigeria’s oil production recovered, with industry stakeholders linking part of the improvement to measures aimed at protecting critical oil assets and reducing crude oil theft.
According to ACLED data, violent incidents in the South-South geopolitical zone declined by 20.9 per cent between 2023 and 2025. Fatalities arising from such incidents also fell by 8.3 per cent during the same period. Although conflict events declined by a larger margin of 26.9 per cent in the South-East, fatalities in the region increased by 8.3 per cent within the review period.
The incidents tracked by ACLED included violence against civilians, battles involving government forces and armed groups, protests, strategic developments, riots, and explosions or other forms of remote violence. The South-West recorded a 14.1 per cent decline in incidents between 2023 and 2025. However, fatalities increased by 12.21 per cent.
The trend differed sharply across Northern Nigeria. Analysis of the database showed that incidents in the North-West rose by 127.9 per cent between 2023 and 2025, while fatalities increased by 99.1 per cent. In the North-East, conflict events rose by 19.5 per cent between 2023 and 2025, while fatalities increased by 26.4 per cent.
The North-Central region also recorded a rise in insecurity, with incidents increasing by 74.1 per cent and fatalities by 38.3 per cent during the period under review. ACLED recorded 4,701 incidents nationwide in 2023. The figure rose to 5,815 in 2024 and further increased to 6,570 in 2025, bringing the total number of incidents over the three-year period to 17,086.
Regional analysis showed that the North-West recorded 1,076 incidents in 2023, 1,727 in 2024 and 2,452 in 2025, for a cumulative total of 5,255 incidents. The North-East recorded 923 incidents in 2023, 985 in 2024 and 1,103 in 2025, amounting to 3,011 incidents. Similarly, the North-Central region recorded 918 incidents in 2023, 1,140 in 2024 and 1,598 in 2025, giving a total of 3,656 incidents.
In the South-South, there were 651 incidents in 2023, 720 in 2024 and 515 in 2025, resulting in a total of 1,886 incidents. The South-West recorded 573 incidents in 2023, 654 in 2024 and 492 in 2025, bringing its total to 1,719 incidents. The South-East recorded 560 incidents in 2023, 589 in 2024 and 410 in 2025, amounting to 1,559 incidents between 2023 and 2025.
National fatalities increased from 8,847 in 2023 to 9,862 in 2024 and rose further to 12,858 in 2025. Altogether, 31,567 deaths were recorded within the three-year period. The North-East recorded 3,469 deaths in 2023, 2,530 in 2024 and 4,486 in 2025, for a total of 10,485 fatalities. The North-West accounted for 2,351 deaths in 2023, 3,952 in 2024 and 4,680 in 2025, resulting in 10,983 fatalities.
The Niger Delta remains central to Nigeria’s economic fortunes because of its role in oil and gas production. As a result, efforts to sustain peace and secure oil infrastructure in the region continue to attract attention from policymakers, regulators, industry operators and host communities.
Among the organisations involved in oil asset protection is Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, which works alongside other security agencies and surveillance contractors in safeguarding oil facilities across the region. Stakeholders have increasingly pointed to the role of such interventions in efforts to curb pipeline vandalism and illegal bunkering, long identified as major threats to Nigeria’s oil production capacity.