The S&P 500 remains firmly locked in a long-term uptrend despite a slight softening in global investor sentiment, according to a technical market brief released on Monday by First National Bank.
The US index continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, comfortably tracking above its crucial 200-day and 200-week simple moving averages as investors balance macroeconomic crosscurrents.
“The outlook remains broadly positive, with our AI-generated forecast model pointing to continued strength over the medium term,” FNB stated in its technical assessment.
The bank noted that while investors are currently weighing geopolitical risks, sticky inflation concerns, and shifting central bank expectations, the broader market backdrop remains neutral rather than bearish. The index is now testing a major technical inflexion point near the 7,620 mark.A decisive break above 7,620 would confirm the continuation of the current Elliott Wave 5 advance,” the bank explained, noting that such a move could “potentially open the way towards the upper boundary of the channel near 8,280.”
However, the bank cautioned that failure to break past this resistance could trigger a near-term period of consolidation or a minor correction. In that event, initial support is expected near 7,020, with stronger technical support sitting around 6,560 if selling pressure intensifies
The S&P 500 remains firmly locked in a long-term uptrend despite a slight softening in global investor sentiment, according to a technical market brief released on Monday by First National Bank.
The US index continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, comfortably tracking above its crucial 200-day and 200-week simple moving averages as investors balance macroeconomic crosscurrents.
“The outlook remains broadly positive, with our AI-generated forecast model pointing to continued strength over the medium term,” FNB stated in its technical assessment.
The bank noted that while investors are currently weighing geopolitical risks, sticky inflation concerns, and shifting central bank expectations, the broader market backdrop remains neutral rather than bearish. The index is now testing a major technical inflexion point near the 7,620 mark.
According to FNB’s technical analysts, this level will determine the immediate trajectory of the index.
“A decisive break above 7,620 would confirm the continuation of the current Elliott Wave 5 advance,” the bank explained, noting that such a move could “potentially open the way towards the upper boundary of the channel near 8,280.”
However, the bank cautioned that failure to break past this resistance could trigger a near-term period of consolidation or a minor correction. In that event, initial support is expected near 7,020, with stronger technical support sitting around 6,560 if selling pressure intensifies.
Despite these underlying risks, FNB maintained that the primary structure of the market is heavily skewed to the upside.
“The current move is more consistent with a pause within an ongoing bull market rather than the beginning of a sustained downturn,” the brief concluded, urging investors to watch the 7,620 signal to confirm the next major leg higher.