As trade starts flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again International Seaways (INSW) CEO Lois Zabrocky and Rystad analyst Susan Bell grapple with the impact on tanker trades.
Speaking on a BTIG organised webinar Bell talked about a recovery of oil movements out of the Arabian Gulf (AG) that is potentially quicker than current forecasts and said: “We need to understand what those trade flows are, and whether there are tankers available to contain that volume, and whether there is a destination for that volume.” Zabrocky, at the helm of a fleet that includes two dozen VLCCs and Suezmaxes, provided insightful commentary on the situation in the Gulf, as well as on the broader tanker market.
Information about flows out of Gulf is not precise. Responding to a question from Lewis about tracking, Zabrocky said that: “For owners who are not on the Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) list, you strive very hard to keep your AIS on in normal times.”
Discussing the movement of vessels, she added that: “if you haven’t gotten out, and you are loaded, you are eager to get out”. She continued, “There are a lot of barrels come out of the AG at the moment, one of the things that we don’t like at all is that…the crude oil that’s moving most freely now is on Iranian sanctioned vessels.”
She cited NITC’s fleet as well as, “the 150 VLCC’s that have been openly flaunting the United States’ sanctions and breaking US law.” Referring to the time period when sanctions on Iran have been lifted, she said: “They are not well maintained and are now given a 60-day permission to bring their crude out. We are eager to see that halted, and- for owners that are compliant with law, to be able to have open and free transit.”
Answering a question from moderator BTIG’s Greg Lewis about the broader tanker market and whether non-Dark Fleet VLCC activity had shifted to the Atlantic, INSW’s Zabrocky said: “As you get up to 8 – 9 million barrels/day [moving out of the AG], you are seeing VLCCs now ballasting to the AG. In the last 48 hours, we are now seeing the Western market increase….we are starting to see more owners heading to the Middle East,” she said.
Previously owners had been pointing their vessels towards the US Gulf/ Brazil/ Guyana- which had all seen increased loadings, with longer voyages, in the past three months.
In further comments about the decisions of participants in the Tankers International pool, owned by INSW since earlier in 2026, and expanding beyond VLCC’s into Suezmaxes, to bring their vessels into the AG for loading cargo, Zabrocky said: “We are looking for a sustained de-escalation…and as you move away from active attacks…for prudent owners…that’s going to make it more amenable for us to go there.” Talking about the progress in recent diplomatic negotiations, she said: “Let’s see how it all goes- we’re looking for open transit in international waters- we’re starting to see some of that happening.”